Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.019065 0.021643 0.024450 0.027734 0.031473 0.035600 0.040505
2025-03-30 0.014370 0.017741 0.021735 0.026824 0.033146 0.040755 0.050630
2025-04-06 0.011976 0.015647 0.020253 0.026470 0.034666 0.045132 0.059564
2025-04-13 0.010049 0.013745 0.018605 0.025480 0.034993 0.047746 0.066231
2025-04-20 0.009199 0.013099 0.018438 0.026312 0.037682 0.053590 0.077687
2025-04-27 0.008464 0.012492 0.018210 0.026961 0.040091 0.059182 0.089272
2025-05-04 0.007897 0.012043 0.018128 0.027760 0.042730 0.065278 0.102143
2025-05-11 0.007157 0.011245 0.017428 0.027525 0.043728 0.068938 0.111565
2025-05-18 0.006585 0.010637 0.016945 0.027548 0.045085 0.073216 0.122313
2025-05-25 0.005996 0.009940 0.016245 0.027134 0.045662 0.076242 0.131229
2025-06-01 0.005639 0.009586 0.016055 0.027526 0.047582 0.081612 0.144590
2025-06-08 0.005215 0.009074 0.015554 0.027330 0.048455 0.085242 0.155206
2025-06-15 0.005001 0.008916 0.015652 0.028208 0.051338 0.092720 0.173675
2025-06-22 0.004528 0.008256 0.014820 0.027349 0.051011 0.094426 0.181642
2025-06-29 0.004181 0.007791 0.014290 0.026983 0.051540 0.097715 0.192895
2025-07-06 0.003781 0.007192 0.013461 0.025974 0.050738 0.098393 0.199052
2025-07-13 0.003664 0.007114 0.013595 0.026822 0.053616 0.106415 0.220770
2025-07-20 0.003530 0.006995 0.013637 0.027484 0.056174 0.114023 0.242391
2025-07-27 0.003423 0.006917 0.013751 0.028299 0.059110 0.122647 0.267029
2025-08-03 0.003209 0.006604 0.013370 0.028059 0.059816 0.126697 0.282116
2025-08-10 0.003040 0.006369 0.013127 0.028083 0.061078 0.132027 0.300572
2025-08-17 0.002840 0.006054 0.012694 0.027661 0.061328 0.135174 0.314352
2025-08-24 0.002732 0.005925 0.012640 0.028061 0.063434 0.142600 0.338847